Decline or revival: What’s really happening to UK Christianity?

Bible Society’s Quiet Revival survey has certainly proved to be contentious.

Among the headline claims were that suggestions the number of people regularly going to church has increased from 8% in 2018 to 12% in 2024.

Following publication, the data were chewed over by many print and broadcast media outlets. To date, it has featured in two episodes of More or Less, the statistical fact-checking programme on BBC Radio 4. With a critical eye on the validity of the survey, some have come to doubt that Bible Society has uncovered a genuine Christian revival. 

Two more data sets have recently been published that offer contradictory accounts. The 2025 National Churches Survey, published by the National Churches Trust, paints a much bleaker picture with an estimated 2,000 churches at risk of closure, with particular difficulty for rural congregations. 

And, newly published, the British Social Attitudes Survey 2025 (BSA) tells still another story. Their data agrees with Bible Society in one sense; that the decline in those affirming a Christian identity has stabilised around 40% of the UK population following a steady drop over the last decades. But, they failed to find evidence for an uptick in those regularly taking part in Christian activities. In short, they agree that ‘cultural Christianity’ is no longer falling, but not that more people are actively and regularly engaged in the faith. 

Can we reconcile these seemingly contradictory data sets?   

It is possible that all these data sets are telling a subtly true story about Christian affiliation in the UK. 

The reason that so many of us sat up and listened to the Bible Society report last year is not only because it offered a glimmer of hope against a backdrop of less cheery news, it is because it accords with the anecdotal experience of so many churches across the country. We have been noticing something we have rarely seen before – a steady stream of people, and notably young adults, turning up on an average Sunday morning with no previous affiliation by family or friendship. And they seem to be particularly keen to find out how to become Christians. Bible Society provided the first evidence to suggest this might be more systemic than just stories shared by church leaders. 

But, we also know that many congregations are closing their doors, particularly in rural areas. These are largely made up of faithful, ageing members who are part of the last generation to accept the faith handed down by their parents. Evangelism was not a strong feature of these churches because few people joined them outside the normal dynamic of the family. As the congregations age, they become increasingly unable to attract new members and inevitably their decline is terminal. If your church isn’t crying, it’s dying, as the saying goes.  

On the other hand, the churches reporting unexpected growth, are those which prioritise the truth claims of the faith, and which are happy to be supernaturally counter-cultural; those churches that witness profoundly to both the intellectual and experiential dimensions of the faith. Among them, the evangelical and charismatic wing along with the sacramental Catholic and Eastern Orthodox.  

Has the methodology of the British Social Attitudes Survey effectively averaged out the decline noted by the National Churches Survey and the uptick by the Bible Society? If so, the future could be bright. There is a natural limit to the closure of church congregations in terminal decline, but those equipped to reach a new generation should grow exponentially. 

Whichever way you cut the data and from whichever survey you draw it from, there are some interesting questions for missiologists to consider for some time to come. While the interpretation of these data remain contentious, it does suggest the need for more in-depth research to find out what is really happening to the faith life of the UK.