Why Iran’s nuclear theology left Israel no choice

A state of hostility has existed between Israel and Iran for almost 45 years, ever since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. As a result, “Death to Israel” has been not merely a slogan, but the goal of the Islamic Republic of Iran.  

Earlier this month, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a massive wave of attacks within Iran, carried out by the Israel Defense Forces and Mossad. The target: Iran’s nuclear and military installations. 

Why did Israel take such bold, pre-emptive action? Why were Israel’s leaders convinced that Iran’s nuclear program threatened the very existence of the Jewish State?  

Few Westerners understand how the tensions between Iran and Israel have largely been driven by the fanatical theological beliefs of Iran’s ruling elite. We need to understand why Shiite Islam—the dominant belief system of Iran—makes Cold War models of nuclear deterrence obsolete.  

The Twelfth Imam

Islam is not a monolithic faith. Much as Christianity is divided into Catholic, Protestant, and Orthodox branches, Islam is deeply divided—most significantly between Sunnis and Shiites. The divisions within Islam are far more violent than any disagreements within present-day Christianity and have produced centuries of war and death.  

The schisms within Islam date back to the death of Muhammad in AD 632, when a dispute arose over who should lead the Muslim community. Sunnis supported Abu Bakr, a companion of Muhammad. Shiites backed Muhammad’s son-in-law, Ali. This dispute produced a violent split that has raged for nearly 14 centuries. 

The defining moment in Shiite history was the martyrdom of Hussein, the grandson of Muhammad, at the Battle of Karbala in AD 680. Hussein was killed by forces loyal to the Sunni-dominated Umayyad Caliphate. To Shiites, Karbala still symbolises righteous resistance against oppression and false doctrine. Some Shia movements consider themselves divinely appointed minorities struggling against corrupt Sunni majorities. 

Shiites comprise only 10-15 per cent of the Muslim world. Iran, however, has been a Shiite stronghold since 1501, when the Safavid dynasty declared Twelver Shiism the state religion of Persia.  

Twelver Shiism is centered on the belief in the Twelfth Imam (the Mahdi). According to Twelver belief, there were twelve Imams (rightful successors to Muhammad, all from Ali’s lineage). The twelfth was Muhammad al-Mahdi, who supposedly went into occultation (miraculous hiddenness) as a child in the 9th century. Twelvers believe the Twelfth Imam is still alive and will one day come forth to impose Islamic rule over the world. 

Iran’s apocalyptic clerics have a powerful incentive to pull the nuclear trigger

Starting a war

Here’s where Iran’s present-day nuclear doctrines meet Iran’s ancient theological doctrines. Some factions within Iran’s clerical leadership believe that the Mahdi’s return will be hastened by global destruction and war. These radical scholars teach that apocalyptic war is a necessary requirement for the Mahdi to be revealed. In this view, Iran’s struggle against Israel and Western civilization is part of a divine plan for the return of the Mahdi. 

This theological doctrine makes a nuclear-armed Iran unthinkably dangerous. During the Cold War, the logic of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) kept nuclear superpowers from attacking each other, because any nuclear attack would invite annihilation.  

But if Iran’s leaders believe that nuclear war would hasten the return of a long-prophesied messiah-figure, they would actually be highly motivated to start a nuclear war, regardless of the consequences. Iran’s apocalyptic clerics have a powerful incentive to pull the nuclear trigger—the fulfillment of ancient prophecies and the establishment of a global caliphate. 

Do Iran’s leaders really dream of launching a nuclear war? In October 2003, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a fatwa (religious ruling) declaring nuclear weapons un-Islamic and forbidden. The Iranian government has repeatedly cited this fatwa and claimed that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. 

Western analysts, however, are skeptical of Iran’s claims. Iran is enriching uranium to levels above 60 per cent, far beyond any “peaceful” use of nuclear energy. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has amassed enough highly enriched uranium to assemble nine nuclear warheads. This troubling development has prompted Israel to eliminate the threat of Iran’s nuclear program.   

While not all Iranian leaders believe they can hasten the Mahdi’s return through war, the prevalence of such views within Tehran threatens to transform the Middle East into a nuclear hellscape. That is why Western and Israeli policymakers must take theology into account as they assess the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran. 

In these uncertain days, Christians around the world must unite in prayer. We easily forget that there are many Christian believers in Iran right now, suffering intense persecution. The war has also caused many Muslims in Iran and many Jews in Israel to become receptive to the Christian gospel. Pray that, in this time of war, God will open many hearts to Jesus, the Prince of Peace.